Market Pulse
Friday, October 31, 2025
Welcome to this week’s Market Pulse, your 5-minute update on key market news and events, with takeaways and insights from the Sidekick Investment Team.
Today, we’re looking at the US-China trade truce, Nvidia’s $5 trillion valuation, and a jump in UK mortgage approvals.
But first, our number of the week…
That’s how many monthly active users Google’s Gemini AI has, according to Alphabet’s recent earnings call. Alphabet is quickly closing the gap on OpenAI, who reports about 800 million active weekly users for ChatGPT.
Sidekick Takeaway: Alphabet was initially viewed as a laggard in the AI race, with a slower start than competitors like Microsoft and OpenAI. While the company has been quick to catch up, it’s been an expensive process, with Alphabet set to spend over $90 billion on capital costs this year.
Only have a minute to read? Here’s the TL;DR:
It’s important to note that the content of this Market Pulse is based on current public information which we consider to be reliable and accurate. It represents Sidekick’s view only and does not represent investment advice - investors should not take decisions to trade based on this information.
Until this week, US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had not met face-to-face in six years.
The stakes for Thursday’s meeting were significant. With China exploiting its leverage over the global rare earths industry, the US continued to raise tariffs higher and higher.
By all accounts, the meeting was a success. The world’s two largest economies took a big step back from the brink – for now.
According to Trump, ‘on the scale from zero to 10… I would say the meeting was at a 12.’ In a separate statement, Xi emphasised the benefits of cooperation and stability.
Still, the two fell short of securing a full deal, instead agreeing to a one-year trade truce.
China, US both make concessions – but key areas undiscussed
As part of the one-year truce, both China and the US will scale back some of their punitive measures:
All these topics are expected to be the subject of further negotiation in the near future. Trump is set to visit China next April.
Sidekick Takeaway: Elsewhere in Asia, Trump managed to secure a wide-ranging deal with South Korea earlier this week, modelled on a previous agreement with Japan. The contrast with his China deal, which merely delays discussion of many key issues, is stark.
As recently as 2024, no company had ever eclipsed a $4 trillion market valuation. That year, three companies achieved the milestone: Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
Now, one of those firms is taking the market to new heights. On Wednesday, Nvidia became the first company in history to achieve a $5 trillion market cap.
Nvidia is now responsible for generating about a fifth of the S&P 500’s gains this year.
The company’s valuation record is no doubt impressive. But it also indicates the soaring expectations placed upon the transformative power of AI.
Nvidia’s valuation depends on high expectations
To understand Nvidia’s valuation, it helps to look at both the company’s historical performance and future estimates:
As a result, the company’s shares could be highly sensitive to any AI slowdown.
However, Nvidia’s own investments could help fuel the industry, helping fund a range of startups and venture deals.
Sidekick Takeaway: To put Nvidia’s valuation in perspective, the company is now worth more than the entire stock market of every country except the US, China, Japan, and India. Whether that valuation is ultimately justified depends on the pace and impact of AI adoption – and whether Nvidia can maintain its technological edge.
Over the past few months, anxiety has grown about the state of Britain’s economy. Amidst elevated inflation and meagre growth, the potential for a stagflationary slowdown looms.
This week, however, the country’s property market saw encouraging signs of life: UK lenders approved the largest number of mortgage applications since 2024.
This data indicates that housing demand could be stabilising. It also shows that banks still believe consumers are a good credit risk.
Lending slowdown could fuel negative spiral
Real estate is a significant driver of the domestic economy, accounting for about 13% of gross value added in the UK. As a result, any lending slowdown could contribute to a negative economic spiral.
With fewer lenders approving mortgages, housing prices could fall, leading to less construction and worse consumer balance sheets.
The fact that banks remain confident enough to approve a high volume of mortgages is a bright spot for the UK economy. It also subverts analyst expectations of a slowdown.
Nonetheless, the real test for the UK housing market will come following potential budget changes in November, where Rachel Reeves could target property tax increases.
Sidekick Takeaway: Given the potential for limited support from the BoE amidst inflation concerns, the UK economy must take all the help it can get. Continued lending activity could help stabilise the real estate market even if other sectors falter.
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𝘗𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘮𝘣𝘦𝘳, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘴 𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮. 𝘠𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘤𝘢𝘱𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 - 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘨𝘰 𝘶𝘱 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘰𝘸𝘯, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘨𝘦𝘵 𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘯 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘱𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘯.
