Welcome to this week’s Market Pulse, your 5-minute update on key market news and events, with takeaways and insights from the Sidekick Investment Team.

Today, we’re looking at the uncertain future of Venezuela’s oil production following Maduro’s capture, Keir Starmer’s controversial push for digital ID cards, and OpenAI launching ChatGPT Health for personalised medical guidance.

But first, our number of the week…

$260 Billion

That’s the total volume of bonds sold by corporations and governments in the first week of 2026. It’s the highest level on record for the comparable period, jumping over $60 billion since last year.

Sidekick Takeaway: This figure indicates that investor appetite for debt remains robust, even amidst elevated AI- and defence-driven borrowing. January is typically one of the busiest months for bond sales, a positive sign for the rest of the year.

‍

Only have a minute to read? Here’s the TL;DR:

• Following Maduro’s capture, the future of Venezuela’s oil market remains uncertain, with production having fallen by over two-thirds since the 1990s. Ramping back to peak levels could require $183 billion in infrastructure improvements over the next decade, with political instability potentially deterring US firms.
• This week, Keir Starmer appointed a minister to spearhead a digital ID card initiative that could save the government £2 billion annually. But despite potential efficiency gains, the proposal remains controversial. The latest polls show that Britons are divided 38% in favour and 32% opposed, citing privacy and accessibility concerns.
• OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT Health, an AI agent trained for personalised health and wellness guidance. While 200 million people already ask ChatGPT health questions each week, the company stressed that AI should complement, not replace, traditional medical advice.

It’s important to note that the content of this Market Pulse is based on current public information which we consider to be reliable and accurate. It represents Sidekick’s view only and does not represent investment advice - investors should not take decisions to trade based on this information.

Potential Energy: The Future of Venezuela’s Oil

On January 3rd, US commandos executed a daring raid to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. The event sparked immediate international reactions.

Keir Starmer emphasised that the UK does not view Maduro as a legitimate leader, but stressed the need to respect international law. That view was mirrored by the EU’s top diplomat.

In the wake of the episode, numerous political questions about Venezuela’s future need to be answered.

But there’s also an urgent question on the table for investors: What will happen to Venezuela’s oil?

Venezuela’s oil: New supply could take years

Venezuela’s oil reserves are some of the largest in the world, but the country’s energy infrastructure has suffered from years of underinvestment.

Donald Trump has expressed a desire to ramp up Venezuela’s oil production. However, the process won’t be straightforward:

• In the late 1990s, Venezuela produced up to 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. That figure has since fallen to below 1 million, less than 1% of global supply.
• Independent estimates show that it could take $183 billion in investment over the course of a decade to ramp Venezuela’s oil production back to peak levels.
• However, political instability may deter US energy firms from making long-term investments in Venezuela’s oil sector, as occurred in both Libya and Iraq.

For now, the US is taking control of Venezuela’s oil sales indefinitely. US military forces have also seized several oil tankers in the region.

But looking toward the future, it could be years before the world sees a meaningful increase in Venezuelan oil exports.

Sidekick Takeaway: There’s one more variable that complicates the oil situation – the veracity of Venezuela’s reserves. Many of these figures were self-reported under the regime of Hugo Chávez, leading some analysts to question whether the country truly has as much oil as it claims.

‍

Verification Nation: Starmer’s Digital ID Battle

As part of Labour’s quest to balance the UK’s public finances, Keir Starmer is seeking to use a new tool: digital ID cards.

Digital IDs have been touted as a way to improve the efficiency of Britain’s public services.

One estimate indicates that the scheme could save the government up to £2 billion per year.

Yet Starmer’s proposal has also proven deeply controversial. Critics cite privacy and accessibility concerns, along with uncertain costs of implementation.

Nonetheless, Downing Street appears to be moving forward with the concept. This week, Starmer appointed a minister dedicated to spearheading the initiative.

Digital IDs: A decades-old debate

The concept of digital ID cards in the UK is not new. In the early 2000s, then-PM Tony Blair proposed a national database of biometric identification.  

However, the scheme ultimately collapsed, largely due to concerns that remain today:

• Following large protests in London last year, one petition opposing Starmer’s plan has already achieved 3 million signatures.
• Legislators remain divided over implementation. Some have argued that digital IDs should be compulsory, verifying an individual’s legal right to work.
• Departments have already been asked to make cuts to support the program, with the roll-out potentially costing £1.8 billion or more.

For their part, Britons remain deeply divided on the subject. According to a poll last year, 38% supported the implementation of digital IDs, with 32% opposed.

Sidekick Takeaway: Digital ID programs certainly can improve public efficiency – just look to Estonia, whose uncontroversial scheme has a 99% take-up rate. However, Labour has declined to provide meaningful details on how the UK’s program will work, undermining public trust in the process.

‍

Dr. GPT: OpenAI Unveils Health-Focused Agent

Despite recent advances, AI has long seemed like a questionable fit for healthcare.

Medical advice is high-stakes, meaning that AI hallucinations can have dangerous consequences.

Now, however, OpenAI is seeking to upend that assumption.

As part of a broader drive into healthcare, the company recently unveiled ChatGPT Health, an AI agent specifically trained for health and wellness.

AI-powered health: An open question

According to OpenAI, ChatGPT Health is designed to provide personalised health guidance – but will stop short of making formal diagnoses.

Even without a dedicated agent, people are still turning to AI for health advice. OpenAI reports that 200 million people ask ChatGPT health-related questions each week.

The agent’s efficacy remains to be seen. However, ChatGPT Health was developed with input from hundreds of physicians, helping fine-tune model outputs.

Just days later, OpenAI followed their initial announcement with the release of new AI tools for healthcare companies.

Nonetheless, the company stressed that AI should only serve to complement – not replace – traditional medical guidance.

Sidekick Takeaway: In recent years, AI firms have raced to develop the most robust tools to support the software industry. Now, healthcare could be the next target, with Anthropic set to host an event on AI’s role in the health sector next week.

‍

Notices

Please remember, investing should be viewed as longer term. Your capital is at risk — the value of investments can go up and down, and you may get back less than you put in. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results

‍