Welcome to this week’s Market Pulse, your 5-minute update on key market news and events, with takeaways and insights from the Sidekick Investment Team.
Today, we’re looking at a global bond rout that’s squeezing government spending power, Elon Musk’s courtroom defeat against OpenAI, and the UK government’s botched attempt to freeze food prices.
But first, our number of the week…
$11 billion
That’s the most recent valuation of Oura, the Finnish smart ring maker that filed confidentially for an IPO this week. The company expects revenue to triple in 2026, riding a wave of consumer demand for health-tracking wearables.
Sidekick Takeaway: Oura’s filing joins a surge in tech IPO activity – SpaceX filed its prospectus the same day, and OpenAI is expected to follow within weeks. After a long drought, the IPO window appears to be reopening in earnest.
Only have a minute to read? Here’s the TL;DR:
- The Iran war has sent bond yields surging across G7 economies, raising the cost of government borrowing at exactly the time when structural spending demands are growing. The risk is that higher yields amplify the economic slowdown beyond the direct energy shock itself.
- A jury unanimously rejected Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, ruling he waited too long to sue. The verdict clears a major hurdle ahead of OpenAI’s potential IPO. However, with the company winning on a technicality, the tension between OpenAI’s public-benefit origins and its near-trillion-dollar valuation remains unresolved.
- Chancellor Rachel Reeves proposed voluntary food price freezes for supermarkets, only for the idea to be shot down by retailers and the BoE within hours. With Labour reeling from major local election losses, the episode highlights a government caught between economic constraints and political desperation.
It’s important to note that the content of this Market Pulse is based on current public information which we consider to be reliable and accurate. It represents Sidekick’s view only and does not represent investment advice - investors should not take decisions to trade based on this information.
Yield Crunch: The Iran War’s Spending Threat
The Iran war’s economic fallout is extending well beyond energy prices.
Government bond yields have surged across G7 economies, with the average 10-year borrowing rate approaching 4% – up from around 3.2% before the conflict began.
The US 30-year yield hit 5%, Japanese government bond yields reached record highs, and German Bunds touched levels not seen in 15 years.
When yields are at such high levels, governments face serious spending constraints.
In the near term, that might slow growth. In the long run, it could also make it much harder to solve the structural challenges facing advanced economies.
The spending squeeze
Just as yields are rising, G7 governments are facing high structural spending demands:
- Governments have earmarked trillions for clean energy spending. Ironically, a fossil fuel shock is now making it harder to fund those commitments.
- European NATO members increased defence spending by 20% in 2025, the steepest climb since the 1950s – a trend that shows no signs of slowing down.
- Ageing populations across the G7 are also straining public finances through higher healthcare, pension, and social care costs.
Taken together, solving these challenges could require some of the largest public spending initiatives in decades.
But the bond market is making these solutions harder to fund, creating a growing gap between what governments need to spend and what they can afford.
Sidekick Takeaway: Don’t be surprised if an era of higher yields intensifies tensions between fiscal authorities and central banks. Governments need low yields to fund critical spending, but central banks want high yields to control inflation.
Case Dismissed: Musk Loses OpenAI Trial
A jury has unanimously rejected Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, ending one of the highest-profile legal battles in AI’s history.
The case centred on whether OpenAI betrayed its founding mission by converting from a nonprofit into a for-profit business.
Musk, who co-founded the startup in 2015, argued that Sam Altman had effectively stolen a charity.
But while OpenAI emerged victorious, the ruling left key questions unresolved.
OpenAI wins – on a technicality
After three weeks of testimony and roughly two hours of deliberations, the nine-member jury found that Musk had waited too long to sue:
- The jury ruled on a statute-of-limitations basis, concluding that Musk had enough knowledge about his claims years ago to have sued sooner than 2024.
- Crucially, the panel never addressed the central question of whether OpenAI abandoned its public-benefit responsibilities. Musk and his lawyers have vowed an appeal.
- While OpenAI may have fended off Musk for now, the company remains exposed to other legal proceedings, including antitrust claims.
The verdict is a significant relief for OpenAI as it eyes a potential IPO.
But a trillion-dollar company built on nonprofit foundations remains an unresolved tension.
Sidekick Takeaway: As founder of xAI, Elon Musk has his own motivations for suing OpenAI. Yet the case did reflect a profound question about the nature of the industry: whether AI companies reaping massive profits can truly claim to work in the public interest.
Price Check: Reeves’ Food Freeze Backfires
This week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves privately proposed food price freezes for supermarkets in a bid to contain the UK’s cost-of-living crisis. The idea lasted about a day.
Corporate bosses called the idea preposterous, noting that food retailers operate on thin margins. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told Parliament that price controls are ’not sustainable’.
While Reeves quickly reversed on the idea, the proposal reflects deep insecurity within Labour around economic policy – and the political survival of Keir Starmer’s government.
A government under pressure
Labour was hammered in this month’s local elections. With Starmer facing a likely leadership challenge, the government is scrambling to show voters it can bring down costs:
- Labour lost over 1,100 councillors and 28 councils, with Reform UK winning more than 1,250 seats across traditional Labour heartlands – in part due to economic frustration.
- Instead of price freezes, Reeves announced a package of cost-of-living measures funded by closing a tax loophole on oil and gas companies. The measures include cutting VAT on summer attractions and children’s restaurant meals.
- Yet amidst fears of more spendthrift successors, gilt yields have risen relative to peers. That will make it even harder for Labour to fund meaningful fiscal relief.
Price freezes were always an unworkable idea. The fact that the policy was floated shows a government caught between economic constraints and political desperation.
Sidekick Takeaway: With a leadership challenge looming and inflation set to climb again, Labour policy could become increasingly reactive, rather than strategic. Gilt markets are already pricing in the uncertainty, and a lengthy leadership battle would only add to it.
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